UFC 309: Preview, Predictions

Image: Per Häljestam / MMA Junkie

After years of campaigning and near-misses, the UFC has made up for lost time in its love affair with the city of New York, and UFC 309 promises to be another serving of history in The Big Apple with a monumental heavyweight title showdown in the world's most famous arena. 

It was back in 2016 when the promotion kicked down the doors as the sport of mixed martial arts was legalised in the state of New York and since then, it has been a yearly tradition of the Octagon serving up stacked cards that all but guarantee iconic moments.

Therefore it serves as no surprise that the consensus greatest fighter of all time Jon Jones tops the bill in a quest to make the first defence of his newly-won heavyweight title against the best heavyweight to step foot in the Octagon, Stipe Miocic, in a showdown that puts legacy, the most prestigious prize in the sport, and likely a victorious farewell on the line. 

While the ominous void that is Tom Aspinall's absence will loom large over the matchup, it remains a historic affair between two bonafide hall-of-fame fighters both feeling they still have plenty to prove: Jones wants to cement his dominance over another division (and potentially set his sights on Aspinall although he has spent fight week trying to convince everyone otherwise) while Miocic wants to bounce back from a crushing defeat to Francis Ngannou more than three years ago and scale the heavyweight summit once again, adding to his storybook career that already has the most heavyweight title defences in the promotion's history.

The stage was set for these two to lock horns one year ago, only for Jones to withdraw from the bout after sustaining a horrific pectoral injury in training. That allowed Aspinall to step up and blast out Sergei Pavlovich for the interim belt while Miocic opted to wait on the sidelines for Jones to heal up. With that in mind, you cannot particularly blame the UFC nor the fighters for still pursuing this legacy matchup, although most will look on with hope that this won't be the last rodeo for the victor, and that they will attempt to unify the belts with the British heavyweight in 2025.

Miocic, while sidelined for a substantial period of time, presents a well-rounded, battle-hardened and legitimate heavyweight that will ask the questions of Jones that Cyril Gane was unable to when he was decimated inside a round last year as "Bones" captured the vacant heavyweight title. On that night, Jones exchanged on the feet for a matter of seconds against the kickboxer, before exploiting his weaknesses on the ground and securing a guillotine choke just over 2 minutes in to the bout. 

It was far too easy for the American who until that night, was considered on a down slope after spluttering through performances to defend his light heavyweight title, most notably in 2020 when he was fortunate to have his hand raised after a razor-close affair with Dominick Reyes. It was a sign that Jones, for all his years of dominance, was mortal, and perhaps the writing was on the wall to eventually coming unstuck. Instead, he brushed those critics away, proving the heavyweight experiment and over three years on the sidelines paid off. During that time, Jones methodically bulked up to 248 pounds after a diligent strength and conditioning regime and some other antics outside of the cage which have somewhat marred his public image but certainly not deviated him from the path of dominance in the sport.

As for Miocic, serving full time as a firefighter in the Ohio state has been pivotal in exorcising the demons from a devastating loss to Ngannou in an empty UFC Apex during the pandemic. Miocic crumpled to the canvas in a heap from a left hook and saw his title brutally snatched away from him, but an opening would emerge when Ngannou failed to see eye-to-eye in the UFC and departed to the sport of boxing, dropping and taking Tyson Fury the distance before being obliterated by Anthony Joshua in Riyadh. Miocic has insisted that during that time off he has only become better, and cutting a nonchalant figure for the most part, it is really hard to tell whether he is phased from that defeat, or the seismic challenge of the UFC's most calculated force come Saturday night. 

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There are so many unknowns going into this fight that make it a more compelling affair. While the majority opinion leans towards Jones dominating an over-the-hill Miocic, the factor of the pectoral injury which will be critical in grappling exchanges cannot be overlooked, Nor can the grappling credentials and boxing ability of Miocic as a legitimate heavyweight that can present several threats to Bones. However, the time off for Miocic after wars with Cormier and then walking into a brutal Ngannou knockout may have done him more harm than good, now coming into the bout at the age of 42 years and putting him in the same bracket as only Glover Teixeira and Randy Couture should he capture the gold at UFC 309. 

Five rounds are also scheduled for the evening's co-main event, which will pit Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler in a rematch of their 2021 classic that saw the Brazilian prevail. "Do Bronx" went on to defend the title several times before succumbing to the unstoppable force that is now lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Oliveira got himself back in the win column before sinking to a decision defeat to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300, but a shot at the lightweight king awaits if he can once again get through "Iron" Michael Chandler. 

Former Bellator champion Chandler burst on to the scene in 2020 to earn a shot at the vacant title and after coming up short against Oliveira, has given fans some incredible memories at The Garden, albeit on the losing end of wars with Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier - and who could forget his spectacular front kick knockout of Tony Ferguson sandwiched in between those contests. Since his last appearance, Chandler was lined up to be Conor McGregor's dance partner upon "The Notorious"' return, even embarking on a season of The Ultimate Fighter with the Irishman. Following various close calls, the two were finally lined up to fight in the summer of this year, only for McGregor to withdraw due to a foot injury within two weeks of the bout, forcing Chandler to finally move on and pursue the title once again. While that is time wasted for others, Chandler insists he has only improved over this time taking the necessary recovery to freshen himself up for another crack at the belt. 

Chandler will come into the bout revitalised while Oliveira will be motivated but aware of his vulnerabilities from the wrestling department that Makhachev and Tsarukyan exposed, and if Chandler is able to fight smart - something even he admits is not likely - then it could be a difficult night for the Brazilian. But expect fireworks and another dramatic outcome with two fighters who come to bring it and will at some point butt heads in the middle of the Octagon.

Heir to the next big superstar throne Bo Nickal will take a step up in competition to take on grappling wizard Paul Craig with president-elect Donald Trump potentially in attendance on the main card. The UFC believe that Nickal could be a major American superstar with his amateur wrestling credentials and unblemished record so far, and he will get a chance to demonstrate his prowess once again against an opponent that will not be afraid to bring it to the ground. The Scot knows he has been brought in to lose but will still present another complex challenge for Nickal to solve.

Predictions

Jon Jones defeats Stipe Miocic via decision: Jon Jones is the best of gameplanners and championship fighters, but Stipe wil not be as easy as Gane in my opinion. Stipe will provide plenty of defensive wrestling and his boxing acumen will not allow "Bones" to easily wade in to range, instead I believe Jones will need to work from the outside and eventualy take control of the fight, with Stipe being too strong to be kept down and too tough for Jones to stop.

Michael Chandler defeats Charles Oliveira via TKO: It's an extremely tough one to call but I believe the freshened Chandler gets it done with a more calculated gameplan this time round. As long as he avoids the firefight with Oliveira, he could see out the danger zone and go for the late knockout.

Bo Nickal defeats Paul Craig via decision: There's a lot of pressure on Nickal but that won't crush him, instead it will make him tread with caution, and Craig will put up a fight to force the distance, but nothing more than that.