Image: Getty Images |
With a wealth of Japanese talent also on display as the UFC makes it's return to East Asia, it's sure to be a wild night in Tokyo—here we break down the big fights with all the things you need to know.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. George Roop
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki and George Roop look to bounce back from losses in resounding fashion as they meet in a Bantamweight contest in the main card.
Notable wins
Mizugaki: B.Caraway, Perez, Rivera
Roop: Korean Zombie, Bowles
Average fight time
Mizugaki: 13:36
Roop: 10:28
Reach
Mizugaki: 68"
Roop: 72"
Striking
Advantage: Mizugaki
Roop is a very tall 135er if not the tallest guy in the division. Although he is 6"1 he really doesn't fight tall as you would think. He doesn't really implement his reach with his punches but more so in the kicking department. Roop has extremely long legs and has an excellent switch left high kick and an excellent teep to the ribs. Roop always follows up his punches with a kick for the mostpart, which makes him more unpredictable.
Roop definitely isn't the fastest guy buy any means and struggles in fast paced exchanges. Roop is very good offensively but he is a sucker for an overhand right. That is the one major whole that has plagued him in his career. Roop has a bad habit of pulling out of exchanges with his chin straight up in the air and he primarily always circles into an orthodox fighter's right hand in every fight.
Sometimes he can get away with it but he has been rocked several times in his Zuffa career even in the fights he wins. He does everything good just has that terrible habit with leaving his chin up.
Takeya Mizugaki has good boxing technique and primarily sticks to punch combos but will occasionally throw a right leg kick. Takeya has an good lead left hook to the head and body and is just an overall good boxer. Takeya does absorb more strikes than Roop but that's just based on him being so willing to exchange in close which Roop will rarely ever try to do. Takeya can be predictable at times and throw an abundance of right hands, but I think that is a good thing when facing Roop to be honest.
Now we know Roop is prone to be caught with overhands a lot, but Takeya kind of prefers more straighter punches and never really lands clean or hurts his opponents with his right hand. In fact, he only has one stoppage in his zuffa career. He has dropped Cisco Rivera, Escevedo, and Caraway in the octagon, but really doesn't have that one punch KO power like the guys that have stopped Roop. Takeya has only been stopped once by strikes by the Former champ Dominick Cruz, and briefly dropped by Caraway and Bowles.
All in all, I think Takeya has faster, sharper, more powerful hands, and better defense. Roop definitely has better kicks and is a bit more unpredictable. Takeya definitely has the better chin.
Grappling
Advantage: Even
Neither guy is a submission threat in this fight and they have never got a submission win in their UFC or WEC careers. Both guys have improved in the grappling department, but I think Roop has improved a tad bit more.
At one point, Roop was susceptible to subs, but he's tightened up those wholes. Both guys can definitely be taken down and they both have shown they know how to get takedowns as well. Roop has added the threat of the takedown in his game lately and showed some excellent ground and pound.
If Roop gets taken down he is very active off his back with elbows and punches, and we have seen Takeya loose rounds in the past by being outworked while he's on top like in the Cariaso fight. Takeya is inconsistent in the grappling department, but he has held his own with excellent bjj fighters like Rani Yahya and Jeff Curran for example. Takeya can allow guys to push the pace on him and get grinded, but Roop isn't that type of fighter. All in all, these guys are fairly even to me on the mat.
Gameplans
Mizugaki: Overhand right and wild exchanges
Roop: Stay on the outside, high kicks and teeps, mix it up
Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki defeats George Roop via unanimous decision.
Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Chico "The King" Camus
Flyweight
Notable wins
Horiguchi: Gaudinot, Loveland
Camus: Pickett. Kang
Average fight time
Horiguchi: 13:32
Camus: 14:33
Reach
Horiguchi: 66"
Camus: 66"
Striking
Advantage: Even
Horiguchi has a very similar style to his coach and training partner Kid Yamamoto. He's just faster and executes better which is attributed to the age gap. Horiguchi keeps his down and mostly throws one punch at a time but he really likes to throw the straight right and left hook combo.
He has a lot of power in that left hook and that is his best offensive weapon. He doesn't kick as much as he likes to punch but he showed in the De los Reyes fight that he has a hard body kick. He has been fighting a lot of lesser fighters besides Johnson so it is kind of hard to measure where he really stacks in the division.
Chico is similiar to Horiguchi in the fact that he is very hard to catch clean on the feet and he does occasionally like to drop his hands and taunt his opponent. Chico has good lateral and in and out movement, and his standup game is steadily improving from when he first entered the octagon.
He was very elusive in the Pickett fight and was very hard to catch and he landed some very nice sneaky uppercuts and mixed up his attacks with a few check knees in what I thought was his best performance. Chico probably doesn't have the power that Horiguchi has, but Chico has not been rocked in the octagon and he has faced the better competiton by far.
I think they are as even as it gets in the speed department and I think Horiguchi has better kicks. I think Chico has slightly faster hands but not by much. They both have a similar activity rate and accuracy rate and defensive rate. Its about as even as you can get on the feet.
Grappling
Advantage: Camus
Chico has the threat of the takedown in his MMA game and has a beautiful duck under shot to a double leg takedown. When Chico gets on top he has shown the tendency to leave his hands on the mat and get put into submissions, but I don't think he will have to worry about that with Horiguchi. Horiguchi doesn't initiate grappling situations, but he has been taken down by lesser fighters but he gets back up everytime despite the DJ fight.
Chico's takedown defense has grown leaps and bounds training with Ben Askren and that was on display when he stuffed 14 of 15 takedowns from Olympic Gold medalist Henry Cejudo. Cejudo got deep on the hips several times and couldn't take Chico down. Chico is definitely not that great off his back but Horiguchi shouldn't be a threat in that department to him in this fight. All in all, I give the edge to Chico in the grappling. department. But he will have time the takedown on a very athletic fighter and I think that is the key to the fight.
Gameplans
Horiguchi: Stay at distance, outstrike him
Camus: Pressure, quick takedowns, stay on top
Prediction: Chico Camus defeats Kyoji Horiguchi via unanimous decision
I like Chico to get a upset victory in Japan. These guys are very even across the board but I think the standup will be fairly close but Chico will get takedowns to slightly win the rounds and get the biggest victory of his career.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah "Primetime" Hall
Middleweight
Notable wins
Mousasi: Hunt, Lombard, Jacare, Henderson, Saint Preux
Hall: Leben, Santos
Average fight time
Mousasi: 7:53
Hall: 10:10
Reach
Mousasi: 76"
Hall: 79"
Strengths
Mousasi: Well rounded, K1 level striker, ground and pound, patience, triangles, chin
Hall: Kickboxing, power, speed
Weaknesses
Mousasi: Nonchalant, takedown defense against the cage
Hall: Hesitant, takedown defense
Striking
Advantage: Mousasi
Both of these fighters have extensive experience in the striking department. Mousasi is a national boxing champion from the Netherlands, which is known for their striking. Mousasi also went undefeated in K-1 as well. Hall has also has a lot of striking experience and some highlight KOs in pro kickboxing.
Mousasi is very calm and patient and will never just recklessly charge in and expose himself. He has a nice, stiff jab along with a nice right head kick. Mousasi is just very measured and steady and excellent in flurries when he has a guy hurt. Mousasi is comfortable standing in the pocket, and doesn't necessarily move his head to much but he has immense confidence in his chin as he has never been finished by strikes or even stunned.
Uriah Hall is very similar to Mousasi in some ways. Hall probably has slightly faster and more powerful kicks than Mousasi, and probably has faster hand speed as well. The thing with Hall is he is very hesitant and respects his opponent way to much at times. Hall can have a good round and then get very comfortable and start playing around and giving his opponent high fives and smiling, causing him to get outworked.
Hall does get hit more than Mousasi in fights because when he pulls out of exchanges his chin goes up in the air, but he can get away with this for the most part because he's so experienced in striking. There is no doubt that Hall has some scary offensive weapons, but he has yet to fully let it go in a UFC fight. If there happens to be a grappling exchange and the action gets back on the feet, Hall's techniques require a lot of energy and I think the effectiveness of them will slow down.
All in all, Hall is faster and more powerful but I think Mousasi can maintain the effectiveness of his techniques better throughout the fight and actually get off at a higher rate.
Advantage: Mousasi
Mousasi is an excellent offensive grappler and he has shown excellent skills off his backs in the past as well. Mousasi can take his opponents down if he isn't fighting a world class grappler and he has excellent bjj.
He outgrappled Hector Lombard in Pride years ago, and has some beautiful triangle victories from his days in DREAM over Dennis Kang and Melvin Manhoef. Mousasi also has some of the most vicious ground and pound in MMA, and we saw that way back when he fought Renato Sobral and Sokoudjo in Strikeforce for example. Mousasi would prefer just to take the back and look for the RNC and he will rarely rush to do so. Now most would think Hall has no grappling, but he has shown he knows how to wrestle at times.
He took Kelvin Gastelum down in the 2nd round and landed some nice punches and in his last fight he showed that he is getting smarter when he finished his opponent by some good strikes on top. Gegard does give up some takedowns against the fence, but I think he'll be able to stuff Hall's attempts if he even tries. Hall is similar in a way where gives up takedowns against the fence. We saw this in the Gastelum, Natal, and Howard fights. I think Gegard can capitalize in this area to win rounds. Hall has never been submitted in his career so it will be interesting to see if Gegard can be the 1st to do so. Hall is not a submission threat to Mousasi. All in all, Gegard has the advantage on the mat.
Gameplans
Mousasi: Come forward, pressure, stay active, takedowns
Hall: Stay on the outside, land something flashy, stuff takedowns
Prediction: Gegard Mousasi defeats Uriah Hall via unanimous decision
I think Hall will come out early like he generally does throwing some thunder, but Mousasi will use his takedowns to slow Hall down and get him thinking which will make him hesitant. I think the rounds will be fairly close but Gegard will slightly win each round.
Josh "The Warmaster" Barnett vs. Roy "Big Country" Nelson
Heavyweight (main event)
Heavyweights will certainly "Go Big" as a colossal Octagon battle emanates from the Land of the Rising Sun, as Roy Nelson and Josh Barnett look to get back into the mix at the top at the fight night event from the Saitama Super Arena.
Notable wins
Barnett: Couture, Mir, Nogueira, Hunt, Kharitonov
Nelson: Struve, Mitrione, Kongo, Nogueira
Average fight time
Barnett: 8:56
Nelson: 8:59
Reach
Barnett: 78"
Nelson: 72"
Strengths
Barnett: Clinch striking and control, submission wrestling, chin
Nelson: One punch KO power, chin
Weaknesses
Barnett: Long layoff, power
Nelson: Cardio, limited attack
Striking
Advantage: Barnett
It is no secret that Roy Nelson has some vicious one punch KO power. He is very dangerous in the first round of a fight and loves to throw right uppercuts and overhands. He really isn't effective with his jab or left hook, as he really looks to load up on those right hand attacks. He rarely throws kicks and his standup arsenal is very limited to only right hand techniques.
If Roy can't finish the fight in the 1st round, he gets very ineffective and more predictable. His energy and movement lowers steadily as the fight goes on. Roy has a very good chin and has only been knocked out twice in his career.
Barnett, on the other hand, is much more patient and primarily uses his strikes to close the distance and get in the clinch to set up takedowns. He doesn't have that scary KO power compared to a lot of the heavy heavyweights in the top 15 but he can still end your night with a punch. Josh throws a lot of jabs and inside leg kicks and tries to stay away from big exchanges which is always smart when fighting Nelson.
All in all, Nelson definitely has more power, especially early, but I think Josh can throw with more volume throughout the fight.
Grappling
Advantage: Barnett
Barnett is definitely in the top 3 grapplers in the heavyweight division. Barnett has an extensive history with various submissions like toe holds, heel hooks, kimuras, and arm triangles. Barnett gets really aggressive in that clinch and when he gets that takedown he is looking to pass guard right away and eventually get to that mount position or side control to set up that kimura or arm triangle.
Roy is also a black belt under Renzo Gracie, the difference Roy will rarely ever use his grappling in a fight and just looks to stand and bang. Roy has good takedown defense and great defensive bjj. If you recall, Werdum was on his back and Roy escaped rather easily, but Josh's plan of attack is different. I don't see Roy as a threat to Josh in this area but if this fight stretches out to the 2nd and 3rd round when Roy gets tired I think Josh can definitely capitalize in this area.
Gameplans
Barnett: Survive the first round, clinch striking, takedowns
Nelson: Move forward, land the overhand and finish the fight in the 1st
Prediction: Josh Barnett defeats Roy Nelson via unanimous decision
I am a huge Nelson fan but he really hasn't progressed in his career. He is very predictable and limited in his attacks. I think Josh just has to be careful early, which is easier said than done with Nelson's power. Once this fight hits the 2nd round and on Roy will be exhausted and Josh should get that takedown and implement his vicious top game. I think he becomes the first guy to submit Nelson.
Prelim Picks
- Ishihara via decision
- Brandao via TKO
- Jiangliang via TKO
- Hein via decision
- Johnson via TKO
- Zapata via TKO
Who will make a statement as the UFC returns to Japan?
COMMENTS