Boxing Renaissance: Previewing Thurman vs. Guerrero, Broner vs. Molina

WRITTEN BY ALEX LEE (@AlexIsTheeName)

Image: PremierBoxingChampions.com

The resurgence of boxing is here.  For years in America, boxing was relegated to a “niche” status, primarily shown on paid cable television to smaller audiences while American football, basketball, and baseball had the prestige of national viewership on free network television.  A night of football, e.g., typically has ratings in the tens of millions of viewers, while it is a good day in boxing to eke one million.  

Thanks to Al Haymon and company, we have PBC (Premiere Boxing Champions) on NBC, PBC on CBS, PBC on SpikeTV, PBC on ESPN2, PBC on Bounce TV, rumored PBC on Telemundo, et cetera, et cetera!  Before the kickoff - which premieres this Saturday, March 7th, 2015 at 8:30pm ET on NBC (BoxNation at 1:30am UK) -  we were privileged to the Mayweather-Pacquiao announcement which set mainstream America and the rest of the world ecstatic.  PBC hopes to capitalize on the momentum.

Guerrero (37-2-1, 18 KO's), a former multi-division champion in his own right, is most widely known for is bout with Floyd Mayweather in 2013.  Undefeated Keith Thurman (24-0, 21 KO's) is a rising star who is perceived as one of Mayweather's greatest threats at welterweight.  An impressive win over Guerrero positions Thurman as an opponent for Mayweather.

The disparity of foot speed between the two fighters will have the greatest influence on the dynamic of the fight, with the difference in natural size as a contributing factor.  Guerrero is a natural featherweight (126lbs), Thurman a natural welterweight (147lbs).  Guerrero's biggest flaws are his slow footwork and poor balance.  Against Thurman, Guerrero will need to master close and end range, using his footwork to quickly transition between the two, and again using his footwork to maintain one or the other.  

Guerrero's slack footwork impairs his ability to control distance, relying heavily on trunk movement to slip punches rather than stepping out of range, or moving laterally, checking his opponent's aggression with his right jab and straight left hand.  Guerrero's physical strengths – chin, durability, height, power, reach – have been offset as a result of moving up in weight.  Thurman, known for his power, consistently fights backing up, which I think largely reveals an aversion to fighting on the inside, similar to Peter Quillin and in contrast to Gennady Golovkin.  Thurman's lack of athleticism and seeming difficulty with fighting at close range may be masked by the fact that he is facing a fighter in Guerrero who is not quick-footed enough to close distance without absorbing punishment, and who may not be able to physically bully Thurman on the inside as he might otherwise be able to if he were a natural welterweight.

Moreover, although Guerrero punches effectively on the inside, he is more rugged than crafty.  As per the usual, Guerrero does not rely on footwork, quickness or position, keeps his center of mass high as he leans on his opponent, frequently in the center of the ring, where he is vulnerable to hooks and uppercuts.  In these scenarios, Guerrero generally gives a tad better than he receives; but, as a smaller fighter, it is not to his advantage to trade with hard hitting welterweights.

A natural welterweight of Guerrero's body type would be taller, with a longer reach, giving him a chance to outbox Thurman at distance.  As it stands, Guerrero only has a one-inch reach advantage.

Guerrero's chances of winning would seem to be in frustrating Thurman's timing with combination punching provisioned by head movement and an active jab, especially right-hooking off of the jab while circling right to slip Thurman's straight right hand.  If Guerrero boxes well at distance, Thurman may look to lunge in with big left hooks and straight rights, or counter as Guerrero steps in with his shots.  As Thurman lacks power while throwing combinations or sustaining a high work rate, this gives Guerrero the opportunity to dictate the fight by setting the pace.  A busy Guerrero could well get knocked out by Thurman, but he would be less likely to lose on points.

Last time. Image: FOX News Latino

In the co-main event, Adrien Broner (30-1, 22 KO's) is matched against John Molina, Jr. (32-5, 22 KO's).  If Broner has not improved since his last fight with Emmanuel Taylor, an upset whereby Molina knocks out Broner in the middle to later rounds is very possible.  

It has been thoroughly demonstrated that Molina cannot win a points decision against an active, solid boxer; he is simply too slow of the hands and feet with poor reflexes to boot.  The proven fail-safe strategy against Molina is an active jab with lateral movement, while avoiding getting knocked out.

But Broner is neither a fighter who ever records a high punch output nor a technical boxer who displays exceptional lateral movement.  At lightweight and below, Broner's physical strength and power allowed him to walk through his opponents, so this was not a concern.  At junior welterweight and above, however, Broner's power has declined, forcing him as a non-busy fighter to rely on accumulating punches.  At lightweight and below, Broner liked to assert his manhood by holding his ground while punches came at him, not bothered if some landed here or there.  His fights with Taylor and Marcos Maidana saw him frequently moving backwards.  

Broner has shown two defensive liabilities while imitating Floyd Mayweather's shoulder roll defense.  For one, Broner is shorter in height and reach than Mayweather, making him even more vulnerable to overhand rights than is Mayweather.  Secondly, Broner likes to move his right-hand to parry all punches, making him susceptible to feints that move his right hand out of position so that he is completely exposed to head shots, especially left hooks.  

Molina's two best punches are his overhand right and left hook.  Do note, Broner's weight was very heavy when the fight was announced, so a fighter whose work rate was already seen as unacceptable for his current weight class now has questionable fitness.

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