WRITTEN BY MMA GENIUS (@mmagenius05)
Junior Dos Santos will clash with Stipe Miocic in a mammoth heavyweight main event as the UFC takes to Arizona for the first time in history. UFC on FOX 13 is shaping up to be an incredible night inside the cage.
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| Junior Dos Santos makes his long anticipated return after he fell short in a third fight with Cain Velasquez in October last year. Image: USA TODAY SPORTS |
A stellar main card features three hard-hitting heavyweight bouts along with an intriguing lightweight battle between the returning Nate Diaz and upcoming Rafael Dos Anjos.
Here, I provide my predictions for the fights, along with breaking down the advantages on the ground and standup with overall preludes before the bell goes in the US Airways Center on Saturday night.
Junior "Cigano" Dos Santos vs Stipe Miocic
Heavyweight division, 5-round main event
Striking Advantage: I definitely give the edge to Dos Santos here. As we all know, Dos Santos has huge power and maybe the heaviest hitter at HW. Stipe has very good boxing technique and likes to land a lot of punches for a HW. He showed us this when he put on a clinic when he upset Roy Nelson. I just think JDS is on a whole different level when it comes to striking. Stipe has big power as well, but JDS has the power that puts fear into every HW in the UFC.
Grappling Advantage: I really don't know whose the better grappler. We rarely see these two on the ground. Junior has a black belt in bjj, but I am assuming it is more of a defensive bjj game. JDS did have problems with wrestling in his fights against Cain, but Stipe's wrestling game is not on Cain's level. Stipe is a decent wrestler, but we really haven't seen much of his ground game in the UFC.
Breakdown: This is a huge opportunity for Stipe as he is taking on arguably the #2 guy in the weight class. Junior can once prove his deadly skills by taking out another up and comer. Stipe is a pretty big underdog, but I don't think it should be that big. Remember this fight is 5 rounds. JDS has struggled both times when his fights go past the 3rd. Stipe has the style that can conserve him more energy in the later rounds, as Junior has the tendency to get tired in the later rounds. I don't see the fight going that long, but if it goes past 3 rounds, don't count Stipe out.
Prediction: I am going to pick Junior Dos Santos by first round tko. I don't think Stipe will be able to take Junior's punches for a long time. Stipe has a small chance if he can make it to the later rounds, but I just don't see it happening. JDS will catch him late in the 1st round and fininsh him off.
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Nate Diaz
Lightweight division
Striking Advantage: Dos Anjos is more of a muay thai striker while Diaz is just a straight boxer. I give a slight advantage to Dos Anjos on the feet as he incorporates more kicks with his punches. Diaz rarely ever throws leg kicks and is pretty easy to prepare for. Diaz is a great boxer, but he is really susceptible to kicks due to him keeping his hands down and his lead leg being so forward. Dos Anjos' kicks are probably the best part of his striking game.
Grappling Advantage: I would say the grappling is about even. Both guys are black belts, but when they use their bjj in different ways. Diaz uses his bjj mostly off his back, and lately Dos Anjos has become a pure striker. Dos Anjos did out grapple one of the best grapplers in the UFC in Mark Boceck at UFC 154. Diaz has showed his great bjj several times with wins over Jim Miller, Kurt Pellegrino, and Takanori Gomi.
Breakdown: This is a huge fight for both guys. A win for Dos Anjos could land him a title shot against Pettis. I feel like people are still not respecting RDA, even after his KO win against former champ Benson Henderson. This is Diaz's return fight after a long layoff due to a contract situation. I expect Dos Anjos to come out throwing a lot of kicks and getting out of the way of Diaz's punches. Diaz will look to be typical Diaz and frustrate Dos Anjos and possible bate him into making a mistake. I don't see Dos Anjos shooting takedowns that much due to Diaz's great jitz game off his back.
Prediction: I like Dos Anjos by unanimous decision. I think Diaz's style has big wholes in it as Ben Henderson and Josh Thomson were able to expose by using leg kicks and high kicks. Dos Anjos, in my opinion, has better kicks then both of them. Dos Anjos will punish that lead leg of Diaz and make Diaz's punches ineffective.
Allistar "The Reem" Overeem vs Stefan "Skyscaper" Struve
Heavyweight division
Striking Advantage: I definitely give the edge to Allistar here. As we know Allistar has a great combination of punches and kicks, and Struve has an incredibly long reach and has a good striking game himself as he showed in a vicious KO of Stipe Miocic. I do give an edge to Struve in the better chin department. Allistar seems to be having a real tough time taking punches lately. Struve dosent have the power of Bigfoot, Browne, or Rothwell, but at this point Allistar seems scared to get hit and I don't think he has much confidence in his chin.
Grappling Advantage: People underestimate Allistar's Grappling as he has submitted black belts before. Struve is really good off his back as he showed that with wins over Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson. All in all, the grappling is about even. I think Allistar can take Struve whenever he wants to, but that might not necessarily be the smartest thing since Struve's legs are extremely long and it's easy for him to wrap up submissions.
Breakdown: This is make or break for Allistar. A loss in this fight will probably be the last time we see him in the UFC. Struve is fighting for the first time since he fought Mark Hunt. He has had some serious health problems as shown when he passed out in the locker room when he was going to fight Matt Mitrione. I expect Allistar to look to strike and avoid the ground game with Struve. I expect Struve to strike as well and test Overeem's suspect chin. Overeem has vowed to KO Struve in 30 seconds. This winner of this fight maybe the guy who lands first.
Prediction: This is a tough fight to pick, but I am going to take Struve in an upset. Allistar still has not changed his style and keeps his hands down. I expect Struve to catch him with a straight right hand down the middle as Allistar comes in winging heavy. I take Struve by KO.
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga vs Matt "Meathead" Mitrione
Heavyweight division
Striking Advantage: Mitrione definitely has the advantage on the feet. Mitrione is one of the quickest guys at HW if not the quickest. Mitrione has HUGE power and loves to stand and bang. Gonzaga has power as well but his chin is suspect and he is more of a grappler.
Grappling Advantage: Gonzaga easily takes the grappling advantage here. Gonzaga is world-class on the ground and grappling is Mitrione's big witness. Mitrione has been working on his ground game since he got subbed by Brendan Schaub. Mitrione's takedown defense is steadily improving.
Breakdown: With a win, Mitrione could get a big step up in competition and get over the hump in his career. Gonzaga is a gatekeeper for the HW division and will test where Matt Mitrione is at. This is the typical striker vs grappler matchup. Mitrione wants to bang and Gonzaga wants to grapple.
Prediction: I like Mitrione by 1st round KO. I think this fight will be over the second Mitrione touches Gonzaga's chin. I think Mitrione finally gets over the hump and becomes a contender.
We're all set for fight night—but who do you think will prevail from the UFC's first event in Arizona?
Here, I provide my predictions for the fights, along with breaking down the advantages on the ground and standup with overall preludes before the bell goes in the US Airways Center on Saturday night.
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| Stipe Miocic can solidify himself as a contender with a victory over "Cigano". Image: Croatian Sports |
Heavyweight division, 5-round main event
Striking Advantage: I definitely give the edge to Dos Santos here. As we all know, Dos Santos has huge power and maybe the heaviest hitter at HW. Stipe has very good boxing technique and likes to land a lot of punches for a HW. He showed us this when he put on a clinic when he upset Roy Nelson. I just think JDS is on a whole different level when it comes to striking. Stipe has big power as well, but JDS has the power that puts fear into every HW in the UFC.
Grappling Advantage: I really don't know whose the better grappler. We rarely see these two on the ground. Junior has a black belt in bjj, but I am assuming it is more of a defensive bjj game. JDS did have problems with wrestling in his fights against Cain, but Stipe's wrestling game is not on Cain's level. Stipe is a decent wrestler, but we really haven't seen much of his ground game in the UFC.
Breakdown: This is a huge opportunity for Stipe as he is taking on arguably the #2 guy in the weight class. Junior can once prove his deadly skills by taking out another up and comer. Stipe is a pretty big underdog, but I don't think it should be that big. Remember this fight is 5 rounds. JDS has struggled both times when his fights go past the 3rd. Stipe has the style that can conserve him more energy in the later rounds, as Junior has the tendency to get tired in the later rounds. I don't see the fight going that long, but if it goes past 3 rounds, don't count Stipe out.
Prediction: I am going to pick Junior Dos Santos by first round tko. I don't think Stipe will be able to take Junior's punches for a long time. Stipe has a small chance if he can make it to the later rounds, but I just don't see it happening. JDS will catch him late in the 1st round and fininsh him off.
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| Dos Santos finally steps back into the Octagon on Saturday night. Image: FOXSports.com |
Lightweight division
Striking Advantage: Dos Anjos is more of a muay thai striker while Diaz is just a straight boxer. I give a slight advantage to Dos Anjos on the feet as he incorporates more kicks with his punches. Diaz rarely ever throws leg kicks and is pretty easy to prepare for. Diaz is a great boxer, but he is really susceptible to kicks due to him keeping his hands down and his lead leg being so forward. Dos Anjos' kicks are probably the best part of his striking game.
Grappling Advantage: I would say the grappling is about even. Both guys are black belts, but when they use their bjj in different ways. Diaz uses his bjj mostly off his back, and lately Dos Anjos has become a pure striker. Dos Anjos did out grapple one of the best grapplers in the UFC in Mark Boceck at UFC 154. Diaz has showed his great bjj several times with wins over Jim Miller, Kurt Pellegrino, and Takanori Gomi.
Breakdown: This is a huge fight for both guys. A win for Dos Anjos could land him a title shot against Pettis. I feel like people are still not respecting RDA, even after his KO win against former champ Benson Henderson. This is Diaz's return fight after a long layoff due to a contract situation. I expect Dos Anjos to come out throwing a lot of kicks and getting out of the way of Diaz's punches. Diaz will look to be typical Diaz and frustrate Dos Anjos and possible bate him into making a mistake. I don't see Dos Anjos shooting takedowns that much due to Diaz's great jitz game off his back.
Prediction: I like Dos Anjos by unanimous decision. I think Diaz's style has big wholes in it as Ben Henderson and Josh Thomson were able to expose by using leg kicks and high kicks. Dos Anjos, in my opinion, has better kicks then both of them. Dos Anjos will punish that lead leg of Diaz and make Diaz's punches ineffective.
Allistar "The Reem" Overeem vs Stefan "Skyscaper" Struve
Heavyweight division
Striking Advantage: I definitely give the edge to Allistar here. As we know Allistar has a great combination of punches and kicks, and Struve has an incredibly long reach and has a good striking game himself as he showed in a vicious KO of Stipe Miocic. I do give an edge to Struve in the better chin department. Allistar seems to be having a real tough time taking punches lately. Struve dosent have the power of Bigfoot, Browne, or Rothwell, but at this point Allistar seems scared to get hit and I don't think he has much confidence in his chin.
Grappling Advantage: People underestimate Allistar's Grappling as he has submitted black belts before. Struve is really good off his back as he showed that with wins over Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson. All in all, the grappling is about even. I think Allistar can take Struve whenever he wants to, but that might not necessarily be the smartest thing since Struve's legs are extremely long and it's easy for him to wrap up submissions.
Breakdown: This is make or break for Allistar. A loss in this fight will probably be the last time we see him in the UFC. Struve is fighting for the first time since he fought Mark Hunt. He has had some serious health problems as shown when he passed out in the locker room when he was going to fight Matt Mitrione. I expect Allistar to look to strike and avoid the ground game with Struve. I expect Struve to strike as well and test Overeem's suspect chin. Overeem has vowed to KO Struve in 30 seconds. This winner of this fight maybe the guy who lands first.
Prediction: This is a tough fight to pick, but I am going to take Struve in an upset. Allistar still has not changed his style and keeps his hands down. I expect Struve to catch him with a straight right hand down the middle as Allistar comes in winging heavy. I take Struve by KO.
Gabriel "Napao" Gonzaga vs Matt "Meathead" Mitrione
Heavyweight division
Striking Advantage: Mitrione definitely has the advantage on the feet. Mitrione is one of the quickest guys at HW if not the quickest. Mitrione has HUGE power and loves to stand and bang. Gonzaga has power as well but his chin is suspect and he is more of a grappler.
Grappling Advantage: Gonzaga easily takes the grappling advantage here. Gonzaga is world-class on the ground and grappling is Mitrione's big witness. Mitrione has been working on his ground game since he got subbed by Brendan Schaub. Mitrione's takedown defense is steadily improving.
Breakdown: With a win, Mitrione could get a big step up in competition and get over the hump in his career. Gonzaga is a gatekeeper for the HW division and will test where Matt Mitrione is at. This is the typical striker vs grappler matchup. Mitrione wants to bang and Gonzaga wants to grapple.
Prediction: I like Mitrione by 1st round KO. I think this fight will be over the second Mitrione touches Gonzaga's chin. I think Mitrione finally gets over the hump and becomes a contender.
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| Gonzaga's weak chin will hold the key to this fight. Image: FOXSports.com |
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