UFC Fight Night Adelaide Preview and Predictions

Image: Bruce Fedyck / USA TODAY Sports

Power hitters Mark Hunt and Stipe Miocic collide as the UFC heads down under once again with a heavyweight collision in store in Adelaide. Here is all the pre-fight analysis and guide to the event.

Image Mark J. Rebilas / USA TODAY Sports

Stipe Miocic (-202) vs. Mark Hunt (+172)

Striking Advantage: Both these guys are good strikers, but Hunt definitely is the better standup fighter based on his striking credentials alone.  Hunt definitely has more power and accuracy, and is a former K-1 champion. Hunt mainly sticks to punches, but he has very hard leg kicks to go along with his devastating   Stipe is a very solid and crisp boxer himself, but he doesn't have that crushing KO power compared to other top heavyweights.  Stipe accumulates his punch count very well and is really active for a heavyweight.  He has a excellent jab and does a good job of throwing it twice to throw guys off and stay in their face.  One thing to consider is that Hunt likes to strike with his hands down and roll with punches as the fight progresses, and Stipe at times can leave his chin straight up in the air, but for the most part he gets away with it.  I would say Hunt has better timing, Stipe with slightly better footwork and movement, and Hunt with the power advantage and accuracy advantage.
Advantage: Hunt

Grappling Advantage: Hunt has improved his grappling since his debut vs Big Sexy McCorkle, but he wont initiate any grappling situations unless he gets rocked or something.  Stipe has good takedowns and he incorporates fake shots to get his opponents guessing on which attack is coming.  Stipe prefers to box so we rarely see his ground game, but if this fight hits the mat he should have the advantage.
Advantage: Miocic

Breakdown: This is a huge fight for both men as they are coming off losses.  Hunt was finished in brutal fashion by interim champ Werdum, and Stipe lost a close decision to former champ Junior Dos Santos, in which I thought he won personally.  I expect them to keep it standing for the mostpart, but I do expect Stipe to shoot in for takedowns in the later rounds.  I have been really high on Stipe lately, and I view him as a serious contender.  Hunt carries power in every round but as the fight goes on he drops his hands, gets lazy, and relies on his chin.  Pretty much every heavyweight gasses out after a round or so, but I think Stipe has more gas in his tank than Hunt.  I think Hunt will have success early and probably win round 1, but I think Stipe will survive and finish Hunt somewhere in the 4th round.

Prediction: Miocic via 4th round TKO


Brad Tavares (-160) vs Robert Whittaker (+140)
  
Standup Advantage: Tavares is very sound on the feet.  He has power but he has adopted more of a technical point fighting approach since joining the UFC.  He has very good technique and doesn't make many too many mistakes under the guide of Ray Sefo.  He is pretty straightforward and solid.  He just sticks to good, crisp punches and kicks and defends right away, but your definitely not going to see anything too flashy from him.  Whittaker has very good in and out movement, and is a bit more aggressive than Tavares and has more of a killer instinct.  He is very good at slipping punches and coming back with a quick counter.  He scored a tko win over Clint Hester in his 185lb debut and it seems like a good move for him.  All in all, I think Whittaker has more power and better movement.  Tavares is more composed and a very slight technical advantage.
Advantage:Even

Grappling Advantage: Both guys have struggled with their defensive grappling in their UFC careers, but they have good offensive grappling.  Whittaker actually has good takedowns and submissions, but would definitely rather keep it on the feet.  Tavares would like to strike as well, but he won't hesitate to shoot while against the cage.  His takedowns from a distance aren't that good though.  I would give an edge in submission ability to Whittaker, but Tavares has really good positioning and decent control when on top.  All in all, I don't see either guy being able to submit eachother unless someone gets rocked first.
Advantage:Even

Breakdown: Tavares is currently ranked as the #14 Middleweight in the world, so this is kind of a step down in terms of big name opponenents.  Whittaker can practically take his spot with a win.  I think both guys would like to keep it standing, but I think Tavares will shoot for takedowns against the fence to seal rounds late.

Prediction: Tavares via unanimous decision


Anthony Perrosh (-163) vs Sean O'Connell (+143)

Striking Advantage: Perosh's striking is basic and rudimentary.  He basically wants to use his strikes to clinch up and get the fight to the mat.  He does have decent power as shown in the fight with Vinny Maghales, but he definitely isn't comfortable on the feet and would like to get in grappling situations.  Oconnell has a basic style as well but it is very entertaining.  O'Connell likes to move forward and BANG! His technique isn't the best but he is very active and moves forward to fight.  His fights vs Villante and Van Buren can attest to this.  O'Connell has a very good chin which allows him to implement this style in his fights. 
Advantage: O'Connell

Grappling Advantage: Perosh definitely has the edge on the mat with his 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.  If Perosh gets on top he loves to take the back, land some big ground and pound, and sink in a choke.  O'Connell does train with a great grappler in Jeremy Horn, but we haven't really seen his full grappling ability in the octagon.  Im sure he will be prepared, but he just isn't on Perosh's level.
Advantage: Perosh

Breakdown: Its amazing how Perosh is still fighting at 42, and is still fairly successful. O'Connell is slowly becoming one of my favorite 205ers with his aggressive and reckless style.  This fight doesn't have big implications but it should be a interesting fight.  O'Connell would like to keep this on the feet but he has to be careful being too overly aggressive as Perosh will be ready to shoot under his punches.  I expect O'Connell to charge forward and chase Perosh until he stops him.

Prediction: O'Connell via 2nd round TKO


Jake Matthews (-148) vs James Vick (+128)

Striking Advantage: Although Vick is undefeated he is still a very raw fighter.  When I watch his tape I see a lot of problems.  His hands drop and stay down and his chin is straight up in the air while striking.  He's gotten away with it because his chin is so hard to reach with his 6"3 frame.  Matthews has nothing too flashy but he has sound, good technique, power, and defense.  He also utilizes level changes very well that set up his striking better.
Advantage: Matthews

Grappling Advantage: Matthews has a submission win over a very good bjj blackbelt in Vagner Rocha and Vick submitted a tough grappler in Ramsey Nijem in his first fight off the TUF show.  Matthews definitely has better wrestling, but Vick isn't scared to get taken down with his long legs.  Vick is super long which allows him to pull off submissions from any position with ease.  I think Matthews can outposition Vick and take him down, but I give Vick the edge in submission ability.
Advantage: Even

Breakdown: This is a big fight for Vick. With a win, Vick could get a big step up in competition as he is undefeated.  The same thing could be said for Matthews as he is also undefeated, but Vick definitely has faced the tougher foes.  I think Matthews would like to take Vick down at some point, but he has to be really careful not leaving his neck around for Vick to choke.  Vick really doesn't seem to have an agenda when he fights but he is game and tough as nails.  I think Matthews might expose some holes in Vick's game in this fight. Vick has a nice reach for 155 but I think Matthews can get inside and land consistent takedowns on route to a decision win.

Prediction: Matthews via unanimous decision.


Preliminary predictions

Hatsu Hioki vs Dan Hooker
Hioki via decision 

Kyle Noke vs Jonavin Webb
Noke via decision

Dan Kelly vs Sam Alvey
Alvey via TKO

Bec Rawlins vs Lisa Ellis
Rawlins via decision

Dylan Andrews vs Brad Scott
Scott via 1st Rd submission

Alex Chambers vs Kaillin Curran
Curran via unanimous decision

Vik Gruji vs Brendan O'Reilly
O'Reilly via decision

Alptekin Ozkilic vs Ben Ngyuen
Ngyuen via 2nd round TKO

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Who will be the prevailing heavyweight when the UFC goes Down Under?