Home Box Office programming executives have decided to curse Crawford-Postol, the most significant bout at junior-welterweight to be made, by forcing a $50 fee on consumers in order to host the event on its HBO-Pay-Per-View platform. Top Rank promoter has stated that 75,000 purchases need to be realized in order to break even. Given last year's flop of Golovkin-Lemieux, which was estimated to have garnished anywhere from 97,000 to 150,000 buys, breaking even might just be a victory. Meanwhile, Gennady Golovkin's promotional team claims it was forced to accept a fight with welterweight Kell Brook in order to preserve his frequent fight schedule against unrecognizable opposition. Three to four times a year is Golovkin's expected rate of appearance – perhaps one of those dates forced Crawford-Postol to a pay-per-view.
Bob Arum has, in bad form, made it clear that he prefers for Terence Crawford (28-0, 20 KO) to win, and for the same reason he wants Manny Pacquiao to return only to lose to Crawford: he is young and has generated feverish hype amongst faithful boxing spectators regarding his talent – Manny Pacquiao must sacrifice himself, or “pass the torch” as they say. With the public demand for Pacquiao on the wane, it is best that Crawford beat him now rather than later. Indeed, the breach of understanding between Arum and Pacquiao's own advisors regarding Crawford as a possible opponent for Pacquiao shows that Arum is attempting to force the issue against the wishes of Pacquiao.
Crawford has not looked unbeatable. He always manages to get hit with very hard punches at some point. His primary weakness is his ability to deal with speed; e.g., Ricky Burns, Yuriorkis Gamboa, Thomas Dulorme. In these scenarios he was saved by a flaw in his opponent. With Burns and Gamboa, Crawford switched to southpaw and use his jab to control much smaller opponents. Dulorme is chinny and has endurance issues and faded away largely on his own before Crawford put him out of his misery.
However, Postol's trainer, Freddie Roach, bafflingly believes that Crawford is better in southpaw than his natural orthodox stance, going so far as to say that Crawford is better coordinated and even has more power from the southpaw stance. What Crawford does well from southpaw is use his jab over the jab of his smaller opponents. However, it can be observed that Crawford is worse from southpaw in every respect: he lacks full trunk rotation of his straight left hand, is less reactive and susceptible to being hit with straight rights, is too square, and not as quick on his feet. Against Viktor Postol (28-0, 12 KO), he will be at a disadvantage with his height and reach and will want to be in a stance where he is more athletic, which is orthodox.
Postol lacks the speed and power of Dulorme. Postol's newfound reputation is based on the fact that he outboxed and stopped Lucas Matthysse most recently. But what was left of Matthysse by that point was the aura of his invincible past history, not his current abilities. Matthysse was slower and smaller than Crawford and presented a complete absence of skill. Matthysse ultimately quit because of a concern with his eye which had swollen up; he had similar eye problems from a jab from Danny Garcia back in September 2013.
Frankly, it Is hard to rate either Crawford or Postol because of the glaring flaws of their opposition which cannot be used as a yardstick for each other. Thus I withhold an official prediction of the winner but state with almost full certainty that it will last the full twelve rounds.
Crawford-Postol will cost you $50 U.S. dollars on Saturday, April 23. The card begins at 9PM US Eastern.