In one of the most anticipated fights of the year, former super-middleweight champion Andre Ward (8-0, 15 KO) is challenging Sullivan Barrera (17-0, 12 KO) for the mandatory slot to Sergey Kovalev's (29-0-1, 26 KO) IBF light-heavyweight title. (Kovalev also holds the WBA and WBO titles, while Adonis Stevenson is in possession of the WBC belt.)
Sullivan Barrera is promoted by Main Events, and Main Events wants him to lose. Sergey Kovalev, also promoted by Main Events, wants Barrera to lose. Kathy Duva, who inherited the promotional entity from her late husband, has made no secret – appearing on Jim Lampley's The Fight Game – that the resurrection of her husband's company is owed to Sergey Kovalev. But neither his branding nor credentials have been maximized due to a lack of notable name on his record. Rather than moving up to the cruiser-weight division to challenge himself against unknowns, Kovalev and Main Events are cherry picking on the accomplished, and smaller, former super-middleweight Andre Ward. John David Jackson, Kovalev's trainer, are banking Kovalev's success on the premise that the smaller Ward will not handle the heavy-handed power of Kovalev. Clearly that is no respectable proposition: - John David Jackson, Sergey Kovalev, Kathy Duva and Main Events are all collectively trying to catapult themselves on the name of Andre Ward, who has accepted the disadvantageous terms and conditions presumably – based on interviews given by Ward's trainer, Virgil Hunter, Ward himself, and the prejudiced on-air behavior of Jim Lampley and unqualified rabble-mouthed past commentator, Michelle Beadle, who is not even a fan of the sport of boxing – under the pressure of HBO. Moreover, everyone not on Ward's team prefers that Kovalev-Ward happen as soon as possible as Ward is inactive and not acclimated to the light-heavyweight division.
So Barrera is the sacrificial lamb with no entity wishing for his success. As far as Kathy Duva and HBO are concerned, a win for Barrera is bad for business.
The main advantage for Barrera is Ward's inactivity. Why? Because Ward's inactivity may adversely affect his reflexes and timing, making him more susceptible to getting hit by perhaps the hardest puncher he has ever faced, and his inactivity may further impair his punch resistance and recovery once he is tagged. This was observed several weeks ago when welterweight champion Sadam Ali was stopped by Jessie Vargas, who was never known as a big puncher, and at least was not a puncher of the caliber of Ali's two previous opponents who applied for more pressure than Vargas. Ali was repeatedly hit by unimpressive straight right hands that he claimed he did not see.
Ward, esteemed for his defensive skills, was hit hard by Paul Smith's right hand in his last outing and has shown lapses in the past where he would, seemingly out of the blue, get hit repeatedly with right hands for short spurts of time.
But Ward, a superb athlete and technician, contrary to popular belief, can indeed physically bully Barrera and Kovalev on the inside. Let us not confuse the heavy-handed power of Barrera and Kovalev, two long and lanky men, with brute physical strength. Neither Barrera nor Kovalev have shown an adeptness for boxing at close range. Ward, shorter than both, can lower himself to either man and use his legs to drive back and pin them against the ropes, taking away the leverage that either man can use to generate power.
Neither Barrera nor Kovalev can match the speed of Andre Ward. For Ward, it is important that he avoid being stationary at mid- or long-range – moving his feet, head, and trunk – as well as to make sure the his movement is always forward or lateral.
The path to Ward stopping Barrera in the late rounds is to outwork him with volume on the inside for the first half of the bout, wearing out Barrera to the body, and then punish the fatigued Barrera – who does tire – with head shots later on. By that time, Barrera will be too fatigued to avoid getting hit.
Barrera must himself avoid a physical tussle. He must be active with his jab and straight right hand to allow his slower feet time to move to maintain the space between Ward and himself. If Ward is unable to transition in and out of mid-range as he wishes, his renown left hook will be a non factor. If Barrera is to hurt Ward, it will likely come from a straight right hand behind a jab, or as a right uppercut as a counter to Ward's right hand if Ward is caught leaning in.
Ward has fashioned his body jab after Floyd Mayweather. While effective, it requires a full commitment, does not allow for anything to quickly proceed it, and requires a delayed reset of stance. Mayweather most recently used the body jab in this likeness against Marcos Maidana. Maidana's stance was very upright, squared, with a tight high guard. Thus Mayweather was effectively increasing the distance between his head and Maidana's gloves while simultaneously moving his head closer to Maidana's body. The net result was that Maidana had to cover more distance without being able to extend his arms in a path that was mechanically efficient for the generation of power. In the cases where Mayweather was not dipping his head, he was finishing his jab to the body with his head pinned close to his opponent smothering any possible return.
Against Diego Corrales and Saul Alvarez, Mayweather's body jab was judiciously used when they were in high guard positions from preceding head attacks or probing of the left hand towards the head prior to sneaking in an unexpected body jab against his defensively positioned opponent.
Thus, in Mayweather's case, not only were these opponents not likely to time the body jab for a counter, they were also not likely to follow up.
In the first several rounds with Froch, Ward heavily used the body jab with a dip of the head and body. But, when Ward lowered himself, he lowered himself from an upright stance into the path of a potential counter from Froch. Look closely at the same body jab from Mayweather to Maidana, Mayweather is already low before advancing with the jab; that is, he is never in the path of a counter. That subtle difference occasionally makes Ward vulnerable to a counter. He got away with it against Froch because of his speed and the fact that Froch never expected it. Barrera will want to anticipate this and be ready to counter with a lead uppercut.
Obviously Ward should be favored to win by decision. If Barrera's cardio-respiratory fitness is not up to par, look for Ward to stop him late. However, it is unknown if Ward will show a lapse in his defense, get hit cleanly, and lack punch resistance because of his lay-off.
Barrera-Ward will be airing on HBO Saturday, March 26, at 9:45p.m. US Eastern.
Sullivan Barrera is promoted by Main Events, and Main Events wants him to lose. Sergey Kovalev, also promoted by Main Events, wants Barrera to lose. Kathy Duva, who inherited the promotional entity from her late husband, has made no secret – appearing on Jim Lampley's The Fight Game – that the resurrection of her husband's company is owed to Sergey Kovalev. But neither his branding nor credentials have been maximized due to a lack of notable name on his record. Rather than moving up to the cruiser-weight division to challenge himself against unknowns, Kovalev and Main Events are cherry picking on the accomplished, and smaller, former super-middleweight Andre Ward. John David Jackson, Kovalev's trainer, are banking Kovalev's success on the premise that the smaller Ward will not handle the heavy-handed power of Kovalev. Clearly that is no respectable proposition: - John David Jackson, Sergey Kovalev, Kathy Duva and Main Events are all collectively trying to catapult themselves on the name of Andre Ward, who has accepted the disadvantageous terms and conditions presumably – based on interviews given by Ward's trainer, Virgil Hunter, Ward himself, and the prejudiced on-air behavior of Jim Lampley and unqualified rabble-mouthed past commentator, Michelle Beadle, who is not even a fan of the sport of boxing – under the pressure of HBO. Moreover, everyone not on Ward's team prefers that Kovalev-Ward happen as soon as possible as Ward is inactive and not acclimated to the light-heavyweight division.
So Barrera is the sacrificial lamb with no entity wishing for his success. As far as Kathy Duva and HBO are concerned, a win for Barrera is bad for business.
The main advantage for Barrera is Ward's inactivity. Why? Because Ward's inactivity may adversely affect his reflexes and timing, making him more susceptible to getting hit by perhaps the hardest puncher he has ever faced, and his inactivity may further impair his punch resistance and recovery once he is tagged. This was observed several weeks ago when welterweight champion Sadam Ali was stopped by Jessie Vargas, who was never known as a big puncher, and at least was not a puncher of the caliber of Ali's two previous opponents who applied for more pressure than Vargas. Ali was repeatedly hit by unimpressive straight right hands that he claimed he did not see.
Ward, esteemed for his defensive skills, was hit hard by Paul Smith's right hand in his last outing and has shown lapses in the past where he would, seemingly out of the blue, get hit repeatedly with right hands for short spurts of time.
But Ward, a superb athlete and technician, contrary to popular belief, can indeed physically bully Barrera and Kovalev on the inside. Let us not confuse the heavy-handed power of Barrera and Kovalev, two long and lanky men, with brute physical strength. Neither Barrera nor Kovalev have shown an adeptness for boxing at close range. Ward, shorter than both, can lower himself to either man and use his legs to drive back and pin them against the ropes, taking away the leverage that either man can use to generate power.
Neither Barrera nor Kovalev can match the speed of Andre Ward. For Ward, it is important that he avoid being stationary at mid- or long-range – moving his feet, head, and trunk – as well as to make sure the his movement is always forward or lateral.
The path to Ward stopping Barrera in the late rounds is to outwork him with volume on the inside for the first half of the bout, wearing out Barrera to the body, and then punish the fatigued Barrera – who does tire – with head shots later on. By that time, Barrera will be too fatigued to avoid getting hit.
Barrera must himself avoid a physical tussle. He must be active with his jab and straight right hand to allow his slower feet time to move to maintain the space between Ward and himself. If Ward is unable to transition in and out of mid-range as he wishes, his renown left hook will be a non factor. If Barrera is to hurt Ward, it will likely come from a straight right hand behind a jab, or as a right uppercut as a counter to Ward's right hand if Ward is caught leaning in.
Ward has fashioned his body jab after Floyd Mayweather. While effective, it requires a full commitment, does not allow for anything to quickly proceed it, and requires a delayed reset of stance. Mayweather most recently used the body jab in this likeness against Marcos Maidana. Maidana's stance was very upright, squared, with a tight high guard. Thus Mayweather was effectively increasing the distance between his head and Maidana's gloves while simultaneously moving his head closer to Maidana's body. The net result was that Maidana had to cover more distance without being able to extend his arms in a path that was mechanically efficient for the generation of power. In the cases where Mayweather was not dipping his head, he was finishing his jab to the body with his head pinned close to his opponent smothering any possible return.
Against Diego Corrales and Saul Alvarez, Mayweather's body jab was judiciously used when they were in high guard positions from preceding head attacks or probing of the left hand towards the head prior to sneaking in an unexpected body jab against his defensively positioned opponent.
Thus, in Mayweather's case, not only were these opponents not likely to time the body jab for a counter, they were also not likely to follow up.
In the first several rounds with Froch, Ward heavily used the body jab with a dip of the head and body. But, when Ward lowered himself, he lowered himself from an upright stance into the path of a potential counter from Froch. Look closely at the same body jab from Mayweather to Maidana, Mayweather is already low before advancing with the jab; that is, he is never in the path of a counter. That subtle difference occasionally makes Ward vulnerable to a counter. He got away with it against Froch because of his speed and the fact that Froch never expected it. Barrera will want to anticipate this and be ready to counter with a lead uppercut.
Obviously Ward should be favored to win by decision. If Barrera's cardio-respiratory fitness is not up to par, look for Ward to stop him late. However, it is unknown if Ward will show a lapse in his defense, get hit cleanly, and lack punch resistance because of his lay-off.
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